Wednesday, October 25, 2017

THE NUMBERS SAY

The sky is falling, the Provincial Liberals will never be re-elected.

If I had a loonie for every single time that I heard that refrain in the past 18 months, I could pay Aidan's tuition! In politics they say a week can be a lifetime. Politicians like to pretend they don't follow polls. The party on the decline likes to say they are just snap shots in time, the only poll that matters is on Election Day! The party in assent normally smiles, says something about being pleased with the trend and reminds the public that the only poll that counts is elections day. Than they nearly choke up the internet getting the polls and the good media stories out to the faithful.

A poll released today shows the Liberals have rebounded with a spectacular jump in decided, and leaning support,  of 17 points since  MQO Research's quarterly poll in July. That is majority government territory.

Last month, on September 13th, a poll showed the Liberal Party had pulled ahead for the first time in months. 

The Corporate Research Quarterly Poll showed the Liberals were the most preferred political party in Newfoundland and Labrador. According to CRA, "Four in ten decided voters backed  the governing  Party (40%, compared with 34% in May 2017).) The survey was conducted from August 9 to September 2, 2017, with overall results for the province accurate to within ± 4.9 percentage points in 95 out of 100 samples. 

The Liberals are climbing at the expense of the Progressive Conservative Party whose support is clearly dropping like a stone. They will learn who their new leader is on April 28, 2018. The Tories just lost their Wonder kid and leadership hopeful Steve Kent whose read of the political tea leaves was to get to higher ground. He resigned on October 10th. Coincidentally, the Liberals called the by-election yesterday, setting  November 21 as the day voters in the  district of Mount Pearl North will elect their new MHA.

It is a seat that is blue as blue gets around these parts, but the recent polls have certainly put the wind in the governing parties sails. A good showing in the by-election would be victory enough for them after the chaotic first half of their term in office. Winning the seat would cement a rebound.  

It is difficult to say who will benefit from the sobering dire recent pronouncements from the Auditor General and the Memorial University Economics doomsayer Dr. Wade Locke. One thing is for certain - the Progressive Conservative reign over the most prosperous decade of our existance  and mismanagement of our oil revenues and the Muskrat Falls Project will weigh heavy on peoples minds.

The NDP was first off the mark nominating unknown Nicole Kieley to bear the orange standard. The Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives  are in the midst of  deciding who will represent them/ Tories Jim Lester and Chuck Nurse are vying for the PC nomination. Real Estate mogul and philanthropist Jim Burton and Mike Kelley are seeking the Liberal nomination. 

It would be unfair to consider a by-election in this staunch Tory seat a referendum on the current Liberal Government but it will certainly be viewed as a litmus test for the Progressive Conservatives. 

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