Monday, August 24, 2015

REGIONAL NUMBERS SHOW THE RACE SO FAR

If the polls were not bad enough for the Federal Liberals, even the leader's seat appears to be up in the air.

The New Democrats have placed a giant bullseye on the riding of Papineau buoyed by polls that show the party is gaining momentum and set to make gains in the province.

Media celebrity  Anne Lagacé Dowson has announced her candidacy making the race for seats on Montreal Island all the more interesting. A former CBC/Radio-Canada journalist, she was defeated in 2008 in Westmount-Ville-Marie riding, losing to Liberal Marc Garneau. 

Another Montreal riding,  Ahuntsic-Cartierville was won by Bloc Québécois in 2011 but incumbant MP Maria Mourani  is seeking re-election under the NDP banner.

The real story, at this point, is that the New Democrats are continuing to move forward. The latest poll from from Forum Research puts the New Democrats ahead with 34 per cent, the Conservatives at 29 per cent, and the Liberals at 28 per cent.

The NDP appear to be in the best position to replace the Conservatives with broad national support which will translate into seats on election night. The regional numbers have improved for the New Democrats with the seat projections ranging from 120-146 seats while the Liberals trail far back with 70-103.

Based on poll averages the Liberals are not leading in any region in Canada. The averages from the latest polls has the New Democrats leading in Atlantic Canada with 37.5% and the Liberals continuing to decline at 36.3%. The NDP gains in Atlantic Canada are coming at the expense of the Liberals who dominated support in the region up to the call of the election. The NDP have doubled their support. 

Just to put the significance of the change in the region in perspective: A Corporate Research Associate's Poll in February pegged the Liberals at 56%. In June that support has eroded to 43%. The latest averages from various polls have the Liberals at 36.3%.

It will be interesting to see if these numbers hold and what that means for the traditionally Liberal region. 

Interesting times!





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