Wednesday, June 17, 2015

THE PROVINCIAL NDP ARE GETTING THEIR HOUSE IN ORDER

I had expected to be blogging about the Liberal nomination battles before commenting any further on the NDP, but alas the gritty details will have to wait.

As expected New Democrat Leader Earle McCurdy and Former Leader Lorianne Micheal have announced where they are  running in the Fall Election.

Lorraine announced via Facebook earlier this evening that she will be running in the new St. John's - East Signal Hill district. I expected as much because a quick review of her strongest core of support was in the Downtown and South of Quid Viddi Lake.  Not to suggest she was weak anywhere. In 2011, she lost only one poll in the entire district! While I will miss her as an active advocate for my community, I am pleased that she is staying on to fight another election.

McCurdy's announcement yesterday was exactly as predicted by the media pundits. He has chosen St. John's West as his battleground in the Fall Provincial Election. 

Frankly, I thought St. John's North would have been the safer move but the West does put another seat in play and makes some strategic sense.  The leader enjoys a strong profile and Earle is a fighter - a safe seat is really not his style. He wants to grow the party and is showing folks that he is leading by example.

Some pundits and armchair quarter backs are suggesting that he is doomed. Liberal Siobhan Coady has been organizing in the area for a while. She has done very well in this particular region in four campaigns - one she won! 

PC Cabinet Minister Danny Crummell is considered as one of the more likeable tories in the city. However lets keep in mind that he is a rookie with only one election under his belt and that he had the Osborne team working with him in 2011. That ship has sailed. The Osbornes are now red, Liberal red. Additionally, The core P.C. vote has collapsed. The party is at a historic low tide mark. 

Remember when the pundits said high profile PC Cabinet Minister Shawn Skinner could not be beaten in St. John's Centre?  Along came political novice New Democrat Gerry Rogers!  I guess what I am saying is that no matter how much beer Molson provided to community groups, sports teams and the like over the years, Skinners community activism made him much more entrenched in the community. Crummell is no Shawn Skinner, the PC party is a pale facsimile of what it was in 2011 and the NDP are surging in St. John's

It is a courageous and potentially contagious move. He is confident that people want real change and he is prepared to risk his shot at election to prove it. By running in the West he ensures that seats like St. John's North remain open for other candidates that are rumored to be in the mix.

The next piece of the puzzle, where is George Murphy going to run? I think a showdown in Pippy Park against NDP defector Dale Kirby would make for an old west showdown that would be fascinating to watch!


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