Saturday, March 8, 2014

RIDING THE ORANGE WAVE

Five academics have concluded that “Layton Mania” combined with the NDP's synergy's with Quebecer's views on the environment, health care and corporate taxes resulted in the party's stunning 2011 Quebec breakthrough.

That has to come as good news to the NDP. The breakthrough was not a fluke. The party, through Layton, was able to convince voters that the New Democrats offered the best alternative amongst the federal parties for their world view.

The yet to be published study does point out challenges faced by the NDP in 2015. The biggest being the that the NDP are far back of the 43% support they garnered in the last federal election in 2011. While support has risen from five percent to 14 per cent, there is no solid core of supporters and workers in Quebec.

Check out Peter O'Neil's story  in the Vancouver Sun for more insight into the study and it's implications for the NDP.

The Canadian Election Study Project is sponsored by  Elections Canada, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council, UBC and McGill University. It is billed as the premiere academic survey on Canadian public opinion and voting behaviour.  The grant is to study the next two federal elections.

"Riding the Orange Wave" will be published in an upcoming issue of the Canadian Journal of Political Science

The CES webpage offers some really good data, webcasts and published research on  the 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2011 elections. The site is a pinata for students of politics or armchair enthusiasts interested in voting trends, leading-edge statistical methodology, the use of computer mapping (GIS) in political geography,  the main reasons why people vote the way they do, what does and does not change during the campaign and from one election to another, and  similarities and differences between voting and elections in Canada and in other democratic countries.

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