Saturday, March 1, 2014


Unsurprisingly, the provincial Conservatives are facing a challenge in the newly vacated district of Virginia Waters.

Former Premier Cathy Dunderdale abandoned the seat yesterday.

A new poll from Mainstreet Technologies indicates that decided support is evenly split between the Liberals and the Conservatives at 27% each. The NDP are way, way, way back at 7%.

The poll was conducted yesterday. 39% of those polled were undecided. Considering the "dangers" of not siding with the government, these numbers tell a story of change.

In the last provincial election in 2011 the Conservative candidate captured over 60% of the vote.  The New Democrats banked over 30% of the votes cast and the Liberals earned less than 10%.

It would appear that the former premier is leaving her district in the same shape as her party - desperate for change!

I wonder if defeated Energy Minister Shawn Skinner will seek the Conservative nomination. He is considering making a bid for the Premier's chair. That bid would certainly be strengthened if he was a member of caucus.

This snapshot illustrates that the Conservatives are going to have their hands full if they wish to hold the seat. Perhaps the NDP might want to take a page from the Liberals who strategically refused to run a candidate against Lorraine Micheal in 2006, to ensure the opposition parties did not divide the vote, letting PC Candidate Jerome Kennedy come up the middle. Had the Liberals run a candidate, the NDP would have lost.

The news must be disconcerting for the NDP who have were hoping to make in-roads in the metro region. Virginia Waters borders Signal Hill - Quidi Vidi which has been the NDP's touchstone seat since Jack Harris wrestled it away from the Conservatives in a by-election in 1990!

At this point the mood of voters appears to be leaving the third party out of contention. Recently 40% of the NDP caucus defected to the Liberals, as well as two Conservative MHA's.

Perhaps Signal Hill - Quidi Vidi might just be up for grabs as the NDP slips into irrelevancy.

The Conservatives were handed a staggering defeat in November when Sam Slade won a by-election in Carbonear-Harbour Grace replacing former senior Torry Cabinet Minister Jerome Kennedy's old seat.

Dunderdale succumbed to poor polling numbers and internal descent announcing her resignation as premier on Jan 24 on the heels of the defection of her party's whip to the Liberals.

A convention to replace Dundedale is scheduled for July 5th.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

why not wait before counting the PC's out until all the candidates come forward...