Monday, November 25, 2013

BYELECTIONS

Tomorrow is byelection day in a contest that is perceived to be a litmus test for the government and the opposition Parties.

The last set of public opinion polls indicate that the governing Tories are in trouble provincially. The opposition Liberals are surging and the New Democrats continue to have the most popular leader.

The latest CRA poll is in the field or just about finished. A lot has changed since the last poll. The Liberals have a permanent leader, the NDP had a very public split that resulted in two of the party's five members quitting the caucus to sit as independents.

The Conservatives are on a charm offensive. They do not appear to be bothering to rehabilitate Premier Dunderdale's reputation, uprighting those historically low government satisfaction numbers is the the key to bouncing back.

Frankly, the pieces for the next election are far from set. The Liberals are just the first of the parties to replace their leader(or not depending on how you view it) as the writing is on the wall for a switch-up in the other parties in advance of the 2015 mandatory general election.

I suppose one could use tomorrow's byelection as a test for new leader Dwight Ball. If the liberals were to loose, the new leader is a dud!

It might also be a test for the best alternative to the government. Can the fractured NDP prove they are still relevant?

Or it could be a local battle between Carbonear and Harbour Grace?Will the Kennedy legacy keep the Tory boat afloat or have voters bought into the Kennedy was pissed with the Premier propaganda?

I guess what I am saying is that there is plenty of spin here for every party and pundit. They will be looking for patterns and spinning yarns.

I will be surprised if the Liberals do not emerge victorious tomorrow night but it would be unwise to discount the Tory ground game. They know how to get the vote out!


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