Wednesday, May 22, 2013

A PAIR OF PROVINCIAL BY-ELECTIONS ON THE HORIZON

Now that the House of Assembly has been locked shut until November, the focus will be on the soon to be called by-election in Labrador.

Opposition Leader Dwight Ball has been questioning the Premier's tardiness in making the call. Why the delay?

I do not see  Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair district as the issue.  The Progressive Conservatives are not going to win, they have no doubt of the result. Finding a sacrificial lamb in place should be easy enough. Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair is a Liberal Fortress in good and bad electoral times

I sense there is omething else is at play here. P&P and some in the local media have been postulating that there is a group of unhappy, tired campers in the government caucus who wish to call it quits. It has been obvious since before the last election that Tom Marshall would like to retire. Other potential retires include Felix Collins, Clyde Jackman, Tom Henderson and veteran Ray Hunter.

My money is on two by-elections. One in Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair which maintains the status quo and another in the safest of the above mentioned seats. 

Considering the NDP's showing in Burin -Placentia  West and their current momentum, Jackman has to wait a while to be released. 

With the Liberal Leadership open, the P.C's do not want to give MP. Gerry Byrne a seat in the House of Assembly, so Tom Marshall might have to wait. 

This leaves Grand-falls-Windsor-Green Bay South and Placenta St. Mary's. Tis a tough time for a  by-election that could actually impact the standings in the House of Assembly. The Government has a very safe majority but the post Budget 2013 fall-out means the political landscape is hard to read. 

My money is on a dual call - the voters of  Grand-falls-Windsor-Green Bay South join the folks in Labrador.

Expect two by-elections by the end of June and more in the fall.

And let us not forget that Independent (former tory) Tom Osborne's future has yet to be determined.


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