Friday, February 1, 2013

DUNDERSTRUCK BY MQO POLL

Rod Budgell of MQO Research offered a great parlor trick to attendees at the St.John's Board of Trade Economic Summit in St. John's this morning.

He offered up the first political poll of 2013.

His companies poll shows a downward trend that should shake up the local Progressive Conservatives.    While I do not have the "nuts and bolts" of this public opinion report, it does confirm that the Tories are sinking as they loose credibility, the Dippers are firmly in second place and the bay Grits are finally picking up traction.

Mr. Budgell's Poll paints the picture of a three way race for the hearts and minds of the Newfoundland voter.  It puts  the governing Progressive Conservatives at 36%, the NDP at 35 per, and the Liberals not too far back at 28 per cent.

What I found really interesting was that the MQO says that Premier Dunderdale is way ahead of her party in decided support. She is at 46%, ten percentage points ahead of the party! That threw me for a loop. 

That result is worth considering. 

I am Dunderstruck by her apparent popularity!

The last Corporate Research Associates (CRA) poll released in December had the Conservatives at 46 per cent support among decided voters. Dunderdale was preferred by just 36%.  The message to those nervous nellies in the PC Party is pretty clear, the leader is the party's life raft.

Pretty convenient.

Certainly the Premier needs a shot in the arm. A political dose of steroids to quieten the waters, to manage expectations.

As Roger Grimes used to say, Too Clever by half.

There are a few things that determine a polls validity.

At this point I do not have the answers to these questions?
  • Dates of interviewing
  • Method of obtaining the interview.
  • Population that was sampled
  • Size and description of the sub-sample.
  • Complete wording of the questions upon which the release is based
  • The percentages upon which conclusions are based
The margin of error is important. The sample was 336 respondents with a margin of error of +/-5.4 percentage points 19 times out of 20. A Margin of error that  exceeds 5 or 6 points, puts the validity of the results as a gauge if public opinion into question.

The last CRA Poll was based on a sample of 800 adult Newfoundland and Labrador residents.  The survey was conducted from November 13 to December 1, 2012 with overall results for the province accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points in 95 out of 100 samples.

No comments: