Thursday, June 7, 2012



Bottom line: Today's CRA Poll illustrates a slow realignment in the province back towards a competitive democracy.

What has changed is that the party in the best shape to challenge the Progressive Conservatives for  power is the New Democrats. They have benefited greatly from the Liberals atrophy and the Progressive Conservative return to political normalcy.

As the Progressive Conservatives come to grip with the worst polling numbers since the NAPE Strike of 2004, there is solace in the fact that these numbers are pretty healthy for any government. The perception of a free fall needs to be managed. This is not a free fall, not yet!

The real winners are the New Democrats. The upward trend for the past 18 months is undeniable.

The Liberals, down again, must come as a big disappointment. Time is running out to change people's minds about their ability to mount an effective opposition to the Progressive Conservatives. That is a recipe for third party status.

Tick...Tock...Tick Tock




Anonymous said...

The NDP, say if Michael does not decide to run in the next election, don't know her age, but she must be near retirement,that will be interesting. and a completely new ball game. Do not see anyone in her caucus capable of filling her shoes.

Peter L. Whittle said...

I did a post on that very issue a few weeks ago.

She has led the NDP for six years. Ms. Micheal was born in 1943, which would make her 69. She will be 74 when the next provincial election rolls around.

Change is the wings. I think the NDP have all kinds of options. Jack Harris could return, he would clinch the deal. Ryan Cleary has a following outside the Avalon. He could mount assemble a dynamic George Murphy, and to a lesser extent are house hold names.

Kirby is young, intelligent, educated, passionate. He might be the new face of the party.

There are also people like Lana Payne, Shelia O'Leary & Gerry Rogers who could easily take the torch from Micheal and take the party to government.

They party really needs to increase it's electability outside of St. John's. They have a seat on the Northern Pen and some close calls in other areas.

I think there will be three new leaders going into he next election

David McManus said...

Agreed. This is very bad for the Liberals and Dwight Ball personally.

He told CBC that he was not concerned, that their plan was in place and the renewal commission was in the field.

Incorrect, they don't start until next week. Doesn't seem to know what his own party machinery is up to and that is a very bad omen.