Wednesday, February 1, 2012

MHI REPORT: MORE FUEL FOR THE DEBATE

______________________________________
 It should be noted that the investigation
of alternative fuel types, other island supply
options, consideration of the export market
via the Maritime Link, the technical feasibility 
of the Maritime Link,electricity requirements
in Labrador as well as potential impacts on
island rates were not included in the review 
by the Terms of Reference.

Manitoba Hydro
_______________________________________


Drum roll please............

The much anticipated Manitoba Hydro Intenational's  Independent review of  Nalcor's Muskrat Falls project has been released to the Public Utilities Board. The utility was asked to compare the costs of the Muskrat Falls project with the Isolated Island option, determining the least cost option.

The study found that "the Muskrat Falls Generating Station and the Labrador-Island Link HVdc projects represent the least-cost option of the two alternatives, when considered together with the underlying assumptions and inputs provided by Nalcor," - no surprise.


As well the report notes a significant gap in Nalcor's assessments of the project, noting that the utility has not done  a  Probabilistic assessment which is  a valuable means to assess system risk, reliability and associated costs/benefits for various system improvement options particularly for a major projects such as the proposed Muskrat Falls development.


MHI says Nalcor's deterministic assessment cannot quantify the true risks associated with a power system and is unable to provide some of the important inputs for making sound engineering decisions, such as risk and associated costs including the potential large societal costs associated with outages.

 I am not certain that this report will do much to still the waters of the debate about the project in this province. There are enough caveats to stoke the engines of the oppositions making for plenty of I told you so's from all sides of the debate.

The report states that the entire financial viability of the project could change by significant "risks and uncertainties.... These changes in key inputs and assumptions can impact the results of the analysis and shift the preference for what is the least cost option."

Clear as mud!

I thought so. Have a read of the report and let me know what you think.

Let the latest wave of propaganda begin!



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